Category — Predictions

Every Friday, I have been laying out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out. This, of course, is the last Friday before the general election.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 31 October 2008:

Obama 349 McCain 189

This is slightly tighter than last week, which is to say that I don’t think Senator Obama can do any better than 375-163. I don’t think he can win any of the 21 states I gave McCain last week.

The changes, statewise, from last week are that I have moved Indiana and North Carolina back to McCain territory. I definitely think they are both still winnable for Obama, but I’m not confident that they’ll be blue.

As I’ve said for weeks: I just don’t see how McCain does it mathematically. By my logic, he needs to win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to have a chance under any plausible scenario. Florida and Ohio and certainly possible, but Pennsylvania has been out of his reach for weeks.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight currently has Obama with a 96.3% chance of winning, same as last week. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff. Regarding Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the same site gives McCain a 29%, 18%, and 2% chances of winning those states, respectively.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

FL IN MO NC ND

Nevada has been downgraded to “competitive for McCain” after some strong polling for Obama.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: AZ GA MT

New to this list is Arizona, John McCain’s home state, where recent polls have Senator Obama within 4 points. Also new is Georgia, where a few polls have had Obama and McCain dead even. More realistic polls show Obama down by 4-6 points, which is probably too much to close by Election Day.

Montana is still looking about +4 McCain.

McCain is competitive in: CO NM NV OH VA

New Hampshire is no longer within reach for McCain.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 24 October 2008:

Obama 375 McCain 163

Another week, another best showing for Senator Obama. He has held onto everything he had last week, and the big change from last week is Indiana going blue. Two weeks ago I had Indiana in battleground, and a week ago I downgraded it to “competitive for Obama”. However, very reliable polls out yesterday are showing Obama with four and five point leads. I’m not convinced he can win Indiana, but it looks like it’s in his column today.

I mentioned this last week, but I want to reiterate that I don’t understand McCain’s decision to try to pursue Pennsylvania. It’s gone. Of the five polls out of PA yesterday, every single one had Obama with a double-digit lead. Two sound polls from Quinnipac and Big Ten have Obama with a double-digit lead in Ohio. It’s looking really rough for McCain.

As I said last week: I just don’t see how McCain does it mathematically.

I realise this is probably a best-case scenario. I hope that Barack Obama carries all of these states — but I don’t think he will. States like North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri are hard to believe; but I’ve only awarded them to Obama because polls have consistently shown him with a lead. Polling site FiveThirtyEight is a little more conservative; they currently predict Senator Obama has 96.3% chance of winning the election, up from 95.1% last week. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

FL IN MO NC ND NV

New to the battleground list is North Dakota, which has moved up from “competitive for Obama”.

Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina are all VERY close.

West Virginia has seemingly moved back solidly into McCain’s column. Ohio has been downgraded to “competitive for McCain” after a series of strong polls for Obama.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: MT

New to this list is Montana. McCain is consistently up 3-5 points, but it’s within reach for Obama.

McCain is competitive in: CO NH NM OH VA

Minnesota appears be out-of-reach for McCain.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 17 October 2008:

Obama 364 McCain 174

Another week, another best showing for Senator Obama. He has held onto everything he had last week, and moving from McCain’s column to Obama’s are North Carolina and Missouri, both of which are polling tightly, but consistently in Obama’s favour. Wow. In addition to that, look at the battleground states below. I never would have imagined a year ago that some of these would be this close.

This is in line with polling site FiveThirtyEight, which is currently predicting a 364-169 split, with West Virginia and its 5 EVs as a tossup. I am allocating WV to McCain, and I think that’s where it will be on election night. FiveThirtyEight is also postulating that there is a 95.1% chance that Senator Obama will win the election, up from 90.5% last week. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff.

I am trying not to be too self-assured, but I don’t see how McCain does it mathematically. Oddly enough, when I add up the EVs of every state I think McCain has ANY shot of winning, I get 270. He’d have to win everything he has a shot in. Doing so requires seriously readjusting his resources. Why is McCain still spending so much time in Pennsylvania? PA is no longer in play. He should be focusing on Ohio, Virginia, and Florida (in that order).

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

FL MO NC NV OH WV

I’ve dropped Virginia to “competitive for McCain”. Obama has had a solid polling lead for a good while. Florida I think is probably in that same category, but I feel less secure about it, so I’m leaving it in battleground.

Indiana has moved down to “competitive for Obama”. It’s not polling as tight as it was a week ago; McCain is showing consistent, albeit small, leads.

New to the battleground list is West Virginia, which has moved up from “competitive for Obama”.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: IN ND

West Virginia has moved up to battleground. New to this list in North Dakota, which is polling very tight, but I’m not quite ready to call it a battleground.

McCain is competitive in: CO MN NH NM VA

Michigan is no longer within reach for McCain.

As we roll out some predictions and endorsements over the next two weeks, I want to restate what I said before the primary.

Our endorsements are worth just about as much as those of the PNJ or Independent News — not much. They mean basically this: “I think this candidate is better suited for the job, and were I voting in that particular election, I would vote for him or her.”

If you disagree with me — good. Leave a comment and make an argument. Maybe you’ll change my mind — or better and more importantly, someone else’s mind.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 10 October 2008:

Obama 338 McCain 200

By far Obama’s best showing. Moving from McCain’s column to Obama’s are Ohio and Nevada, which both have been polling significantly in his favour. States which McCain should really not be having trouble holding onto, like North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri are all very tight now — definitely within Obama’s reach.

To compare with my predictions, election prediction site FiveThirtyEight is postulating there is a 90.5% chance Senator Obama will win the election, and they are predicting a statistical EV split of 346.8 to 191.2. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

FL IN MO NC NV OH VA

Colorado is not quite as razor-thin as it has been in past weeks, and I’ve moved it down to “competitive for McCain”. Same goes for Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: WV

No changes here. West Virginia remains unexpectedly competitive, but I think it will stay red.

McCain is competitive in: CO MI MN NH NM

I’ve dropped Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin from this list because they all appear to be solidly blue at the moment, despite McCain’s continued efforts to make up ground, especially in Pennsylvania.

Of these, I’d say McCain has an actual shot in New Hampshire and New Mexico, and maaaaybe Michigan and Minnesota.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 3 October 2008:

Obama 313 McCain 225

I’m being conservative — Ohio should arguably be in Obama’s column, but it’s still very close, and polls have just started trending to Obama. If that trend continues, it’ll certainly be blue next week.

Virginia has tightened a bit and is probably every bit as close as Ohio, but I think Obama’s still got it (and will have it on November 4).

The big mover this week is Florida, which very quickly (and surprisingly, to me) shifted gears and is now definitively in Obama’s column, no question. McCain is playing catch-up.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL IN MO MN NC NH OH VA

New to this list is Missouri. I always thought Missouri would be more competitive than it has been and was surprised McCain kept the lead he did for so long.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: WV

Nevada has moved from “Competitive for Obama” to battleground. Almost every poll I’ve seen out of Nevada in the last two weeks has the race within three points.

Missouri has moved from “Competitive for Obama” to battleground as Obama has made up some ground there and most polling has this race within five points.

McCain is competitive in: MI PA NM WA WI

Of these, I’d say McCain has an actual shot in New Mexico, and maybe Pennsylvania. Michigan, Wisconsin, and especially Washington are increasingly out-of-reach for him.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 26 September 2008:

Obama 286 McCain 252

Colorado is back in Obama’s column after a one-week stay in McCainland. Likewise, Ohio moves back into McCain territory after I gave it to Obama last week. Ohio is very tight, with most polling within the margin of error. I’m giving it to him based on a +4 Fox/Rasmussen poll. Lastly, Virginia moves back into Obama’s camp after a string of favourable polls.

This has been a hard week for the McCain/Palin ticket. Poll after poll shows that Americans just don’t trust John McCain with the economy, and the economy’s been the big bad news day after day. And Palin’s unfavourables continue to climb each time she ends up in front of a camera.

Palin sat down earlier this week with CBS News’ Katie Couric. Boy, was it funny:

Couric
Explain to me why [being governor of Alaska] enhances your foreign policy credentials.

Palin
Well, it certainly does because our– our next door neighbors are foreign countries. They’re in the state that I am the executive of. And there in Russia–

Couric
Have you ever been involved with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

Palin
We have trade missions back and forth. We– we do– it’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where– where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is– from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to– to our state.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL IN MN NC NH OH VA

Among these states, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Virginia are razor thin. Indiana has really tightened up and is now classified as a “battleground state” in my book, up from “competitive for McCain” last week. Obama has caught up in Florida after McCain opened up a bit of a lead in the last couple weeks; McCain realistically is about +2 in Florida right now.

North Carolina has tightened up really fast, McCain having a sizeable lead just 7-10 days ago. Recent polling is all within the margin of error.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: MO NV WV

Nevada is pretty tight. Any tighter and I’d move it to battleground.

I’ve removed Montana from this list as the latest polling has McCain with an 11-point lead.

McCain is competitive in: MI PA NM WA

Pennsylvania is back here as the PA Biden bump seems to have worn off and McCain has made up some ground.

While he’s polling within ten points in each, Michigan and Washington are both longshots for McCain.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 19 September 2008:

Obama 284 McCain 254

The two changes from last week: Firstly, that I have moved Colorado from blue to red, based on recent polling. Colorado would be a big win for Obama, and this is the first time he’s lost his handle on it. It’s still very competitive. Likewise, based on recent polling (here and here), I am awarding Ohio to Obama. Ohio is still obscenely tight, and I’ll add this disclaimer: If I’m wrong about Ohio, and it’s still red, McCain wins 274-264.

Virginia remains unbearably close. Looking at polls coming out of Virginia in the last 7-10 days (likely voter polls only, we’re ignoring registered voter polls), we have two with Obama leading (50-46 and 48-46), one with McCain leading (50-44), and one with them even at 48-48. I’m thinking, or hoping, that Obama is starting to regain some ground in Virginia, but in an abundance of caution, I’m leaving it in McCain’s column.

Likewise, I am leaving New Hampshire in Obama’s column, because even though a recent Zogby Internet poll has McCain up, I don’t really trust internet polling, and the results just don’t feel right.

I’m less pessimistic than I was last week. Daily tracking polls over the past few days are definitely showing an Obama shift. National polls are useless, basically, for anything other than establishing trends and public response to goings-on. But these trends have trickled down to state polling, where Obama is starting to make up ground. I think that McCain’s RNC/Palin bump is over, and the terrible news concerning the U.S. economy this week is helping Obama. I predict Obama making up more ground in state polling over the next week, and that next week’s map will remain blue.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL MN NH OH VA

Florida and Ohio may be trending back into Obama territory. CNN polling dated 9/15 shows Obama leading both, by margins of 4 and 2 points respectively, but CNN polls tend to lean Democratic by a point or two, so I’m hesitant to move either back into Obama’s column just yet.

Minnesota is still in Obama territory. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll earlier in the week put the race dead even at 45-45, but a SUSA poll from the same time period doesn’t have it so close, so I’m still giving it to Obama. That said, Minnesota is closer than it’s been all cycle.

Michigan is still close, but not as close as some people think. Most reputable polls over the last 7-10 days have Obama with a lead of at least 4-6 points. I’m moving it to “Competitive for McCain”.

Nevada looks like it’s slipping more and more into McCain’s column, and accordingly I’ve moved it from “Battleground” to “Competitive for Obama”.

Competitive States

Generally speaking, I’ve limited this to states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart in Pollster.com’s trend estimates.

Obama is competitive in: IN MO MT NV WV

It’s increasingly clear that the Obama campaign should have deployed more resources to West Virginia, which has become pretty competitive despite little attention from Obama.

Gone from this list are Arizona and North Dakota. ARG has McCain with a 17 point lead in Arizona. ARG is kind-of like the store brand of polls — you know it’s not quite right, but it’s good enough, usually. I suspect the real number in Arizona is more like McCain +10. McCain seems to be really opening up in North Dakota, which until late July/early August was very competitive.

McCain is competitive in: MI NM WA

I’ve added Washington here, which is ridiculous, but somehow McCain’s tightened it up. Recent Rasmussen and SUSA polls have McCain within 4 points.

A lot of folks think New Mexico is tighter than I do. I just don’t think McCain has made enough of an inroad to call it battleground, yet.

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 12 September 2008:

Obama 273 McCain 265

Things have tightened. I, for one, underestimated the combined Palin/RNC bump for McCain. Recent polling indicates he’s turning a few purple states back a little more red. Palin’s presence on the ticket, quite frankly, disappoints me, because she is polarising. I was holding out hope that this election would be a referendum on the issues and on positions, rather than on individuals or ideologies. Palin plays well for single issue voters such as social conservatives and will help McCain obscure discussion of the real issues, on which he is weak — the economy, education, healthcare, the war.

Two changes from last week. Firstly, I’ve moved New Hampshire and its 3 EVs from McCain’s column to Obama’s. It’s certainly very competitive, but Obama leads, and I think his lead will grow. Secondly, I’ve moved Virginia from Obama’s column to McCain’s. This is the single most competitive state in the union. Every major poll in the last six weeks has them both within the margin of error, and they still do, but the most recent ones from Rasmussen and SUSA have McCain on top, in that margin. I still feel confident in Senator Obama’s ability to take Virginia, but it’s as close as it gets.

I’m trying not to be pessimistic, but this is definitely the worst-off Obama has been.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL MI NH NV OH VA

I’ve moved Michigan from “Competitive for McCain” to “Battleground”, because of how much it’s tightened.

I’ve moved Montana from Battleground to Competitive as the latest Rasmussen poll has McCain with a 53-42 lead. A little bit of a surprise, as previous polls have consistently had the two within the margin of error. Same goes for North Dakota, although that’s not really much of a surprise.

The big prizes here, of course, are Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13).

Competitive States

Generally speaking, I’ve limited this to states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart in Pollster.com’s trend estimates.

Obama is competitive in: AZ IN MO MT ND

I’ve moved North Carolina, which I previously had as competitive for Obama, solidly into McCain’s column for the time being, as the latest SUSA poll has McCain leading Obama by 20 points. Jeez. I’ve also pulled Georgia from this category. The majority of the polls done here since the Republican convention have been partisan polls, but they still show a 12-18 point lead for McCain, so for the time being, I’m giving Georgia solidly to McCain.

McCain is competitive in: NM

New Mexico has tightened to the point where I feel comfortable saying McCain has a shot at it.

Every Saturday through the general election I will lay out my predictions as to how I think this year’s Senate races will shake out.

This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. Eighteen of the seats are defended by Republican incumbents, with the Democrats fighting to keep 12 seats. Remaining are five open, vacated by retiring Republicans.

The current makeup of the Senate is 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Both independents caucus with the Democrats, so for most purposes it is a 51-49 split.

I’m currently projecting a net pickup of 5 seats for the Democratic party, all from Republican seats. When you throw in the independents that makes a 56-44 split. The downside: It’s not 60, so it’s not enough to pass anything the Democratic Party wants. The upside: The Democratic Party will no longer have to pander to Independent Joe Lieberman (who now is the reason the party holds the Senate). We can take back all of the traitor’s choice committee assignments. I’d throw him out of the party.

Keep reading for a state-by-state breakdown.

[Read more →]

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 5 September 2008:

Obama 282 McCain 256

Unchanged since last week. There’s been a little bit of movement here and there, but it hasn’t changed the map at all. Obama has shored up his support in states he was already going to win. North Carolina is a leaning a little more for McCain. As I said last week, I consider this a generally pessimistic prediction; I’ve given McCain a few states I really don’t think he’ll win (Ohio, New Hampshire) and a bunch that I think are very competitive.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL MT ND NH NV OH VA

Pennsylvania is no longer in this category, with Obama/Biden polling 6-7 points up consistently. The big prizes here, of course, are Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13). It’s my opinion that Obama only needs one of those three states. McCain needs all three.

Competitive States

These are states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart.

Obama is competitive in: AZ GA IN MO NC

It’s remarkable, really, how many states Obama is competitive in. What’s even more remarkable is how many of those competitive states are usually forgone conclusions for the GOP.

McCain is competitive in: MI

I’m confident that Obama will take Michigan, but it’s within reach for McCain.

Today and every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 29 August 2008:

Obama 282 McCain 256

I consider this a generally pessimistic prediction; I’ve given McCain a few states I really don’t think he’ll win (Ohio, New Hampshire) and a bunch that I think are very competitive.