On the 2009 Better Pensacola survey

The Better Pensacola Forum has released the results of their 2009 “quality of life” survey. The full executive summary is included at the bottom of this post.

This is the second year in which the Better Pensacola Forum has commissioned such a survey. While the survey indicates marginal improvements in many areas over last year’s results, and a slightly more positive outlook, this year’s survey reflects many of the same negative trends indicated in last year’s survey.

Introduction

The survey was conducted by polling firm Mason-Dixon, which polled by telephone 800 registered voters in Escambia County. The polling took place on July 22-27, 2009. The margin of error is ±3.5%. Mason-Dixon also conducted Better Pensacola Forum’s 2008 survey.

Of the 800 individuals polled, 21% or 168 were City residents, and 79% or 632 were residents of unincorporated Escambia County. 76% were white and 19% black, with other minorities and/or refusals comprising the remaining 5%. Other demographics, including sex, age, education, and income were relatively balanced. 59% of those polled identified as having resided in the area for 20 or more years.

This is by no means a full or comprehensive analysis of the survey’s data, but merely a “first glance.”

Right track/wrong track

The headline question, as with last year’s survey, was “Generally, do you think things are on the right track or are the on the wrong track?”

There were marginal improvements over 2008 for both City and County residents. 47% of City residents and 48% of County residents polled answered “wrong track,” down from last year’s numbers of 52% and 54%.

Top issues

Predictably, the top issue for a plurality of respondents was the economy and jobs (32% City/45% County). Second place went to education (17% City/12% County); third place was “poor leadership” (7% City/10% County). It’s worth noting that the percentage of County residents naming the economy and jobs as their top issue rose 17% over last year, while that issue picked up only a further 4% of City residents. Next in order of importance for City residents was “Downtown Pensacola” with 8% of respondents (and only 0.4% of County respondents).

See the full executive summary below for the remainder of the list.

Quality of life factors

The survey asked respondents to rate various “quality of life factors” as either excellent, good, fair, or poor. In these responses, City and County residents are lumped together.

Economic issues

Respondents were asked to rate several economic indicators:

The economic development numbers were largely unchanged from last year, while the job opportunity numbers got worse, with a 7% drop in those giving responses of “excellent” or “good,” and an 8% increase in those giving responses of “poor.”

The next five years

Respondents to the survey were pessimistic about the near future.

Q: Over the next five years, do you think that the quality of life in Escambia County will improve, deteriorate, or remain about the same?

• Same: 57%
• Improve: 31%
• Deteriorate: 12%
• Not sure: 1%

Q: Five years from now, do you think that the economy in Escambia County will be better off, worse off, or about the same as it is today?

• Same: 46%
• Better: 33%
• Worse: 15%
• Not sure: 7%

The survey definitely reflects a sense of stagnancy among respondents. 53% of respondents said that they “don’t have a sense that things will improve in the foreseeable future.”

Political issues

Consolidation: The survey indicates that respondents are split on the issue of consolidation, with a significant minority undecided.

Q: Generally do you support consolidating the Town of Century, the City of Pensacola, and Escambia County into a single local government?

• Support: 42%
• Oppose: 40%
• Not sure: 18%

African-American respondents supported consolidation by a 56-28 margin, while white respondents narrowly opposed consolidation 43-40.

Interestingly, 30% of City respondents answered “not sure,” compared to just 15% of County respondents. However, regarding any potential referendum on consolidation, this isn’t an incredibly useful indicator, because a referendum would require approval from both City and County voters (i.e. they are of equal weight), but the polling sample is weighed 79% County voters to 21% City voters.

The survey then asked a loaded question which predictably produced results more favourable to consolidation:

Q: If consolidation meant more cost-efficient services and a much greater chance of success in economic development, job growth and a better quality of life, would you be more likely to support consolidation?

• More likely: 64%
• No impact: 30%
• Not sure: 6%

Leadership: The survey reflects pretty resoundingly that respondents recognise the need for leadership in local government.

Q: Without leadership and a clear, shared vision there is little chance for coordinated, successful efforts to attract economic opportunity, jobs, and to improve the overall quality of life in Escambia County and the City of Pensacola.

• Strongly agree: 51%
• Somewhat agree: 41%
• Somewhat disagree: 6%
• Strongly disagree: 1%
• Not sure: 2%

Criticisms

Progressive Pensacola and others take issue with some of the methodology used in the survey.

Significant portions of the survey are, in our opinion, of questionable use, due to the way in which that portion of the survey is structured.

For example, of the survey categorises responses of “fair” as “negative” responses. Most people probably view “fair” as a synonym for “average” or “passable,” and we think it’s reasonable to believe that some people answering with “fair” aren’t intended to give a “negative” response. For that reason, we feel the results are skewed to the negative.

Ms. Ann W. Regan, a member of the City’s General Pension Board and retired financial executive, agrees. In a recent email to City Council members, Ms. Regan noted the same methodology in the 2008 survey:

If Mason-Dixon had written its report in terms of the original four responses, the results would have shown that 90% of those surveyed rated the quality of life in Escambia County as good, fair, or excellent, with 44% rating it good, 39% rating it fair and 7% rating it excellent. But Mason-Dixon did not report the results in this manner. Instead, Mason-Dixon lumped the 39% “fair” responses in with the 10% “poor” responses and gave both responses their negative rating. Then, Mason-Dixon reported that 49% of voters surveyed rated their quality of life in Escambia County negatively.

There’s no question that many in Pensacola and Escambia County have significant concerns about these issues. The survey contains much useful data, but readers should be aware that numbers can be rearranged to say almost anything. Take them with a grain of salt.

The full executive summary for the 2009 survey is embedded below. For a copy of the 2008 survey, see the Better Pensacola Forum web site.

Better Pensacola Survey 09