Statewide races update, 04.13.09

All indications are that Florida Governor Charlie Crist will run for U.S. Senate. The Sarasota Herald-Tribune outlines the game of musical chairs that would likely ensue:

Instead, with Gov. Charlie Crist now an all-but-confirmed candidate for Senate, the quickly developing race is for governor.

At least six Republicans and the fastest rising star in the state Democratic Party are now either running for governor or headed in that direction if Crist announces he will seek Mel Martinez’s vacant Senate seat next year.

Outgoing Commissioner of Agriculture Charles Bronson, a Republican, has said that he will run if Governor Crist leaves the governorship to run for Senate. Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, a Democrat, is currently filed to run for reelection as CFO but will almost certainly jump into the gubernatorial race upon Governor Crist’s absence therefrom. Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum would likely also consider a run. The Herald-Tribune rounds out the rest of the possible cast:

Beyond that trio, other prominent candidates likely to jump in include U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, and former House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami. Dark-horse contenders include Florida Senate President Jeff Atwater and St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, both Republicans.

Impact on the U.S. Senate race

Governor Crist’s entrance into the U.S. Senate race immediately clears the field of any other possible Republican contenders. He immediately secures the Republican nomination and becomes the clear favourite in the general election.

Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek has pledged to remain in the race regardless of whether or not Governor Crist runs. At an event in Pensacola last week, Congressman Meek was asked what he would do if Governor Crist entered the race. Meek brushed off concerns, responding, “What do you mean ‘What am I going to do about Charlie Crist’? If the governor runs, the governor runs.”

Congressman Meek may put on a brave public face, but he can’t be anything but disappointed if Governor Crist enters the Senate race. Without Governor Crist in the race, Congressman Meek would have strong chances against any other Republican opponent. With Governor Crist as a rival, Mr. Meek faces at best an uphill battle. Despite Mr. Meek’s strong first quarter fundraising, Governor Crist would bring in money by the truckload, and Congressman Meek trails the governor substantially in name recognition, favourables, etc.

Congressman Meek has been racking up union endorsements, though. Today he secured the endorsement of ASCME (Association of State, County and Municipal Employees), and he has already picked up endorsements from SEIU (Service Employees International Union), IUPAT (International Union of Painters and Allied Trades), and United Teachers of Dade.

Impact on the gubernatorial race

The degree to which Governor Crist would be a favourite in the Senate race means that if he runs, the Senate race is no longer the marquee statewide race, with that focus shifting to the race to replace him as governor. Alex Sink probably clears the Democratic field as there are few if any willing Democrats with as much of a statewide profile. The Republican side, though, is almost certain to feature a primary battle, which can only help Ms. Sink.

Impact on the AG race

If Bill McCollum decides to run for governor, look for State Senator Dave Aronberg (D-Greenacres) to run to replace him as Attorney General. Former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rod Smith is also interested, but he’d likely defer to Mr. Aronberg.

Links

• Sarasota Herald-Tribune: “Hot campaign brews in Florida, but not the one you think”
• Miami Herald (AP): “Bronson preparing to run for Fla. governor”