Looking to 2010: U.S. Senator
Tags: 2010 U.S. Senate election / 2010 statewide elections / Dan Gelber / Marco Rubio / Mel Martinez / Robert Wexler / Ron Klein
Continuing our series of articles looking forward to races in 2010, we take a look at the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Mel Martinez.
The Republicans
Mel Martinez
Republican incumbent Mel Martinez is not incredibly popular, with only a 42% approval rating among Floridians, according to a recent Quinnipac poll. In fact, Martinez is considered so vulnerable that I’ve heard some folks speculate he may decide not to run for reelection, clearing the way for other Republicans such as former Florida House speaker Marco Rubio. Furthermore, if Martinez does decide to run for reelection, he’ll have to hit the fundraising trail hard, because between serving as RNC chair for two years and touring the country campaigning for John McCain, he’s neglected his war chest, and only has about $1.3 million on hand.
The Democrats
Alex Sink
There are feew Florida Democrats with more statewide name recognition than Sink, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer. Sink will likely run either for the Senate seat or challenge Charlie Crist for Florida’s governorship. While Sink probably has a better shot at the Senate seat, currently held by unpopular Republican Mel Martinez, she has made moves in recent months to draw contrasts between herself and Crist. Back in August, Sink told the St. Petersburg Times, “I will assess the landscape after the first of the year, and make a decision then.”
Allen Boyd
Boyd, a Blue Dog Democrat congressman, has represented Florida’s 2nd congressional district, which includes most of the central and eastern Panhandle, since 1997. Like Sink, he’s considering both the Senate seat and the governorship. While he doesn’t have a lot of statewide name recognition, his position as a conservative Democrat fits Florida’s divided electorate. Furthermore, his time in Washington would give him a heads-up in fundraising ability were he to run for Senate.
Robert Wexler
Wexler, who will soon enter his seventh term representing South Florida’s 19th district in Congress, is a self-described “fire-breathing liberal”. He is incredibly popular in his district, garnering between 65-72% of the vote in his four contested elections; in three of his elections, no one has even bothered to challenge him. While I personally am a big fan, I think Wexler is simply too far left to win statewide office. While he’d do well in the urban areas of central and south Florida, and the Democratic areas on Florida’s southeast coast, he’d have trouble in north and northwest Florida.
Ron Klein
Klein represents South Florida’s 22nd congressional district and is perhaps best known for defeating 13-term Republican incumbent Clay Shaw for the seat in 2006. Klein has spent the last two years fundraising, and with $2.1 million in the bank, there are those that wonder if he’s gearing up for a Senate run.
Dan Gelber
Gelber most recently served as minority leader in the Florida House before being elected to the Florida Senate earlier this month.
We need a candidate like Allen Boyd who can narrow the gap in North Florida. Boyd would be a very effective Senator too.
I’ve always felt a strong democrat from the panhandle would be the smartest choice. If you can make in-roads into the Republican base, this goes from a swing to a blue state no problem.
Mel Martinez hasn’t a chance of re-election. That’s not to say that a Republican hasn’t a chance, just not Mel. With McCain and Bush, Mel helped water down the conservative tilt of the Republican party to the point that in some key areas like govt spending and illegal immigration, there isn’t much daylight between him and any Democrat.
Where Wexler is concerned, I think its amazing that his legal residence is, or was until just a few months ago, at his home in Maryland, and he has been able to skate on that without any consequence to this day. ???? I have no doubt that he will win re-election.
Ross: I agree with you. If the GOP was smart, they’d shelve Martinez and run someone like Marco Rubio.
Regarding Wexler, his LEGAL residence with the Florida Division of Elections and the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections has been and remains his mother’s house in Delray Beach, Florida. His vehicles are registered in the State of Florida.
That said, the fact of the matter is that he makes his home in a Maryland suburb and is only in his district maybe two times a month. Obviously we’d like Congresspeople to spend as much time as possible in the districts they represent, but Wexler’s situation is not an unusual one. Most if not all Congresspeople maintain some Washington residence; for some that’s just a small apartment, like Senator Obama had while in the Senate. For others, that’s a full-fledged home, and they move their families up there to be close to them. For Congressman and Senators that represent nearby states, it might be easier to take the train home, etc., but when flights home are really your only option I can see how that could get old really fast — and it’s expensive for the taxpayer.
Philip: I agree… to a point. But the fact is, statewide races are not decided in the Panhandle. We just don’t have enough population to offset the votes of the major metro areas. I think someone like Buzz Ritchie would have a real good chance, though, if only he were interested.
Strong Republican candidates will not run against Senator Martinez in a primary, so the GOP will keep Mel.
However, DSCC will be begging Alex Sink and throwing money at her. She would be the strongest candidate, but this race will be as much a referendum on Obama’s first term as the two candidates.
Remember, history shows the opposition party picks up seats in off-year elections.