Presidential predictions, 31 October 2008

Every Friday, I have been laying out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out. This, of course, is the last Friday before the general election.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 31 October 2008:

Obama 349 McCain 189

This is slightly tighter than last week, which is to say that I don’t think Senator Obama can do any better than 375-163. I don’t think he can win any of the 21 states I gave McCain last week.

The changes, statewise, from last week are that I have moved Indiana and North Carolina back to McCain territory. I definitely think they are both still winnable for Obama, but I’m not confident that they’ll be blue.

As I’ve said for weeks: I just don’t see how McCain does it mathematically. By my logic, he needs to win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to have a chance under any plausible scenario. Florida and Ohio and certainly possible, but Pennsylvania has been out of his reach for weeks.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight currently has Obama with a 96.3% chance of winning, same as last week. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff. Regarding Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the same site gives McCain a 29%, 18%, and 2% chances of winning those states, respectively.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

FL IN MO NC ND

Nevada has been downgraded to “competitive for McCain” after some strong polling for Obama.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: AZ GA MT

New to this list is Arizona, John McCain’s home state, where recent polls have Senator Obama within 4 points. Also new is Georgia, where a few polls have had Obama and McCain dead even. More realistic polls show Obama down by 4-6 points, which is probably too much to close by Election Day.

Montana is still looking about +4 McCain.

McCain is competitive in: CO NM NV OH VA

New Hampshire is no longer within reach for McCain.