Presidential predictions, 24 October 2008

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 24 October 2008:

Obama 375 McCain 163

Another week, another best showing for Senator Obama. He has held onto everything he had last week, and the big change from last week is Indiana going blue. Two weeks ago I had Indiana in battleground, and a week ago I downgraded it to “competitive for Obama”. However, very reliable polls out yesterday are showing Obama with four and five point leads. I’m not convinced he can win Indiana, but it looks like it’s in his column today.

I mentioned this last week, but I want to reiterate that I don’t understand McCain’s decision to try to pursue Pennsylvania. It’s gone. Of the five polls out of PA yesterday, every single one had Obama with a double-digit lead. Two sound polls from Quinnipac and Big Ten have Obama with a double-digit lead in Ohio. It’s looking really rough for McCain.

As I said last week: I just don’t see how McCain does it mathematically.

I realise this is probably a best-case scenario. I hope that Barack Obama carries all of these states — but I don’t think he will. States like North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri are hard to believe; but I’ve only awarded them to Obama because polls have consistently shown him with a lead. Polling site FiveThirtyEight is a little more conservative; they currently predict Senator Obama has 96.3% chance of winning the election, up from 95.1% last week. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

FL IN MO NC ND NV

New to the battleground list is North Dakota, which has moved up from “competitive for Obama”.

Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina are all VERY close.

West Virginia has seemingly moved back solidly into McCain’s column. Ohio has been downgraded to “competitive for McCain” after a series of strong polls for Obama.

Competitive States

Obama is competitive in: MT

New to this list is Montana. McCain is consistently up 3-5 points, but it’s within reach for Obama.

McCain is competitive in: CO NH NM OH VA

Minnesota appears be out-of-reach for McCain.