Presidential predictions, 10 October 2008
Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.
As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.
My prediction as of 10 October 2008:
Obama 338 McCain 200
By far Obama’s best showing. Moving from McCain’s column to Obama’s are Ohio and Nevada, which both have been polling significantly in his favour. States which McCain should really not be having trouble holding onto, like North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri are all very tight now — definitely within Obama’s reach.
To compare with my predictions, election prediction site FiveThirtyEight is postulating there is a 90.5% chance Senator Obama will win the election, and they are predicting a statistical EV split of 346.8 to 191.2. Unlike me, FiveThirtyEight uses fancypants computers and algorithms that analyse polling data and trends and stuff.
Battleground States
These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.
FL IN MO NC NV OH VA
Colorado is not quite as razor-thin as it has been in past weeks, and I’ve moved it down to “competitive for McCain”. Same goes for Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Competitive States
Obama is competitive in: WV
No changes here. West Virginia remains unexpectedly competitive, but I think it will stay red.
McCain is competitive in: CO MI MN NH NM
I’ve dropped Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin from this list because they all appear to be solidly blue at the moment, despite McCain’s continued efforts to make up ground, especially in Pennsylvania.
Of these, I’d say McCain has an actual shot in New Hampshire and New Mexico, and maaaaybe Michigan and Minnesota.
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To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com