Presidential predictions, 12 September 2008

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 12 September 2008:

Obama 273 McCain 265

Things have tightened. I, for one, underestimated the combined Palin/RNC bump for McCain. Recent polling indicates he’s turning a few purple states back a little more red. Palin’s presence on the ticket, quite frankly, disappoints me, because she is polarising. I was holding out hope that this election would be a referendum on the issues and on positions, rather than on individuals or ideologies. Palin plays well for single issue voters such as social conservatives and will help McCain obscure discussion of the real issues, on which he is weak — the economy, education, healthcare, the war.

Two changes from last week. Firstly, I’ve moved New Hampshire and its 3 EVs from McCain’s column to Obama’s. It’s certainly very competitive, but Obama leads, and I think his lead will grow. Secondly, I’ve moved Virginia from Obama’s column to McCain’s. This is the single most competitive state in the union. Every major poll in the last six weeks has them both within the margin of error, and they still do, but the most recent ones from Rasmussen and SUSA have McCain on top, in that margin. I still feel confident in Senator Obama’s ability to take Virginia, but it’s as close as it gets.

I’m trying not to be pessimistic, but this is definitely the worst-off Obama has been.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them above based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL MI NH NV OH VA

I’ve moved Michigan from “Competitive for McCain” to “Battleground”, because of how much it’s tightened.

I’ve moved Montana from Battleground to Competitive as the latest Rasmussen poll has McCain with a 53-42 lead. A little bit of a surprise, as previous polls have consistently had the two within the margin of error. Same goes for North Dakota, although that’s not really much of a surprise.

The big prizes here, of course, are Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13).

Competitive States

Generally speaking, I’ve limited this to states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart in Pollster.com’s trend estimates.

Obama is competitive in: AZ IN MO MT ND

I’ve moved North Carolina, which I previously had as competitive for Obama, solidly into McCain’s column for the time being, as the latest SUSA poll has McCain leading Obama by 20 points. Jeez. I’ve also pulled Georgia from this category. The majority of the polls done here since the Republican convention have been partisan polls, but they still show a 12-18 point lead for McCain, so for the time being, I’m giving Georgia solidly to McCain.

McCain is competitive in: NM

New Mexico has tightened to the point where I feel comfortable saying McCain has a shot at it.