Senate predictions, 6 September 2008

Every Saturday through the general election I will lay out my predictions as to how I think this year’s Senate races will shake out.

This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. Eighteen of the seats are defended by Republican incumbents, with the Democrats fighting to keep 12 seats. Remaining are five open, vacated by retiring Republicans.

The current makeup of the Senate is 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Both independents caucus with the Democrats, so for most purposes it is a 51-49 split.

I’m currently projecting a net pickup of 5 seats for the Democratic party, all from Republican seats. When you throw in the independents that makes a 56-44 split. The downside: It’s not 60, so it’s not enough to pass anything the Democratic Party wants. The upside: The Democratic Party will no longer have to pander to Independent Joe Lieberman (who now is the reason the party holds the Senate). We can take back all of the traitor’s choice committee assignments. I’d throw him out of the party.

Keep reading for a state-by-state breakdown.

Alabama: Safely Republican

Incumbent Republican Jeff Sessions should easily defeat Democratic challenger Vivian Davis Figures.

Alaska: Democratic Pickup

Look for Democratic challenger Mark Begich to take the seat of SEVEN-TERM Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, who has been indicted by a federal grand jury and charged with violating provisions of the Ethics in Government Act.

Arkansas: Safely Democratic

There is no Republican challenger to incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor.

Colorado: Democratic Pickup

This is an open seat, being vacated by retiring Republican Wayne Allard. Look for Democrat Mark Udall to defeat Republican Bob Schaffer.

Delaware: Safely Democratic

Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden is also running for reelection to his Senate seat, which he’ll win. Should he become the vice president, Delaware’s Democratic governor would appoint a replacement pending a special election.

Georgia: Leans Republican

Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has a safe, but not insurmountable, lead of 7-8 points over Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

Idaho: Leans Republican

This seat, vacated by Republican Larry “Bathroom Stall” Craig, is probably more “safe” than “leaning”, but (a) is still relatively close, with a margin of 10 points or so, (b) more than 15% of voters self-identify as “undecided”, and (c) Democrat Larry LaRocco has made recent gains against Republican Jim Risch.

Illinois: Safely Democratic

Incumbent Democrat (and Majority Whip) Dick Durbin will easily defeat Republican challenger Steve Sauerberg.

Iowa: Safely Democratic

Likewise, popular four-term incumbent Democrat Tom Harkin should have no problem with Republican challenger Christopher Reed.

Kansas: Safely Republican

Republican incumbent Pat Roberts is not significantly threatened by Democratic challenger Jim Slattery.

Kentucky: Safely Republican

This one isn’t entirely out of reach for Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford (who has a lot of fight in him), but it’s looking like Republican incumbent (and Minority Leader) Mitch McConnell will probably come out on top.

Louisiana: Safely Democratic

Republican John N. Kennedy is not a serious challenger to incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu.

Maine: Safely Republican

This race has the potential to be competitive, but at the moment, it looks like Republican incumbent Susan Collins will be able to hold off Democratic challenger Tom Allen.

Massachusetts: Safely Democratic

Come on, it’s Massachusetts. Incumbent Democratic John Kerry will easily defeat whatever no-name the GOP is running.

Michigan: Safely Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Carl Levin isn’t going to have any trouble with Republican challenger Jack Hoogendyk.

Minnesota: Leans Republican

Democratic challenger Al Franken certainly has a shot at this seat, but he’s got an uphill battle against incumbent Republican Norm Coleman.

Mississippi I: Safely Republican

Republican incumbent Thad Cochran should be able to hold off Democratic challenger Erik Fleming with little effort.

Mississippi II: Leans Republican

Democrat Ronnie Musgrove is within ten points of interim Republican Senator Roger Wicker, but this is Mississippi, and while it’s a competitive race, I’m not quite ready to call it a toss-up.

Montana: Safely Democratic

Republican challenger Bob Kelleher is not a serious problem for popular five-term Democratic incumbent Max Baucus.

Nebraska: Safely Republican

This race is an open seat, being vacated by retiring Republican Chuck Hagel. Democratic challenger Scott Kleeb is a great candidate, but I don’t think he’s got the gusto to seriously compete with Republican Mike Johanns.

New Hampshire: Democratic Pickup

All is not lost for Republican incumbent John Sununu, but he’s polling more than ten points behind Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen, so it doesn’t look good for him.

New Jersey: Safely Democratic

Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg should be able to hold off Republican challenger Dick Zimmer.

New Mexico: Democratic Pickup

Retiring Republican Pete Domenici had some “ethics issues” that have paved the way for this seat to switch parties. Democrat Mark Udall has a commanding lead over Republican Steve Pearce, and I think it’ll stay that way.

North Carolina: Toss-Up

This is the single most uncertain Senate race of the cycle. Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan are running neck and neck, within the margin of error. Who polls on top changes weekly if not daily. My gut tells me Hagan will pull this out, and this will be another Democratic pickup, but in the spirit of bipartisanship, we’ll give it to Lizzie for the time being.

Oklahoma: Safely Republican

Democratic challenger Andrew Rice will not seriously threaten Republican incumbent James Inhofe, which is too bad, because Inhofe is a kook and a moron.

Oregon: Leans Republican

Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is a centrist who broke with Bush more than any other GOP senator in 2007. That might be enough for him to survive a challenge from Democrat Jeff Merkley in what is generally a blue state.

Rhode Island: Safely Democratic

Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is probably the safest incumbent this cycle after Mark Pryor (who doesn’t have an opponent). Reed will likely garner 70+% of the vote.

South Carolina: Safely Republican

Popular Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham will cruise to victory over Democratic challenger Bob Conley.

South Dakota: Safely Democratic

Once considered a GOP target, this seat is completely safe. Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson has racked up a nearly-thirty-point lead in polls, which Republican challenger Joel Dykstra won’t be able to overcome.

Tennessee: Safely Republican

Republican incumbent Lamar Alexander doesn’t have to worry too much about Democratic challenger Bob Tuke.

Texas: Safely Republican

This race could be competitive under the right circumstances, but it looks like Republican incumbent John Cornyn will be able to hold off Democratic challenger Rick Noriega.

Virginia: Democratic Pickup

Democrat Mark Warner is heavily favoured to take this open seat, which is being vacated by retiring Republican John Warner (no relation). Both Warner and the Republican candidate, Jim Gilmore, are former governors of Virginia.

West Virginia: Safely Democratic

Popular Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller will easily defeat Republican challenger Jay Wolfe to win a fifth term.

Wyoming I: Safely Republican

Republican incumbent Mike Enzi will have no problem winning reelection in heavily Republican Wyoming.

Wyoming II: Safely Republican

Likewise, Republican incumbent John Barrasso will easily defeat Democratic challenger Nick Carter to retain his seat.