Presidential predictions, 5 September 2008
Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.
As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.
My prediction as of 5 September 2008:
Obama 282 McCain 256
Unchanged since last week. There’s been a little bit of movement here and there, but it hasn’t changed the map at all. Obama has shored up his support in states he was already going to win. North Carolina is a leaning a little more for McCain. As I said last week, I consider this a generally pessimistic prediction; I’ve given McCain a few states I really don’t think he’ll win (Ohio, New Hampshire) and a bunch that I think are very competitive.
Battleground States
These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them based on trend data and gut feeling.
CO FL MT ND NH NV OH VA
Pennsylvania is no longer in this category, with Obama/Biden polling 6-7 points up consistently. The big prizes here, of course, are Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13). It’s my opinion that Obama only needs one of those three states. McCain needs all three.
Competitive States
These are states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart.
Obama is competitive in: AZ GA IN MO NC
It’s remarkable, really, how many states Obama is competitive in. What’s even more remarkable is how many of those competitive states are usually forgone conclusions for the GOP.
McCain is competitive in: MI
I’m confident that Obama will take Michigan, but it’s within reach for McCain.
Tags: 2008 general election · Predictions
3 comments
Never in the field of human endeavour was so much owed by so many to so few.SirWinstonChurchillSir Winston Churchill, 1874-1965
To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
As it is now 10/15 and the latest NY Times poll is out, it can be said that directionally you clearly had it right. But I don’t think any of us anticipated the economy or what an inept, shoot-yourself-in-the-foot campaign McCain would run. I don’t believe in bringing religion into politics, but for those of you who do, I think God is pretty much giving you a sign.
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