Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 5 September 2008:

Obama 282 McCain 256

Unchanged since last week. There’s been a little bit of movement here and there, but it hasn’t changed the map at all. Obama has shored up his support in states he was already going to win. North Carolina is a leaning a little more for McCain. As I said last week, I consider this a generally pessimistic prediction; I’ve given McCain a few states I really don’t think he’ll win (Ohio, New Hampshire) and a bunch that I think are very competitive.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL MT ND NH NV OH VA

Pennsylvania is no longer in this category, with Obama/Biden polling 6-7 points up consistently. The big prizes here, of course, are Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13). It’s my opinion that Obama only needs one of those three states. McCain needs all three.

Competitive States

These are states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart.

Obama is competitive in: AZ GA IN MO NC

It’s remarkable, really, how many states Obama is competitive in. What’s even more remarkable is how many of those competitive states are usually forgone conclusions for the GOP.

McCain is competitive in: MI

I’m confident that Obama will take Michigan, but it’s within reach for McCain.

The Escambia BOCC voted last night to cut the millage rate, which determines property taxes, from 8.017 to 6.9755 mils. This will represent a savings of $100-200 for the average homeowner, and a cut to the County budget of $27.7 million. Now, the county will make up some of that — around $13 million — from new revenue, as courts have ruled the County can now levy property taxes against the residents of Pensacola Beach. Even so, that’s still a big budget cut, and while tax relief is certainly welcome, I don’t know that I trust our BOCC to handle any budget cut responsibly.

Links

• PNJ: “County rolls back property tax rates”