Posts from — August 2008

The PNJ has run a decent story covering the ECUA-1 race, one of last Tuesday’s real upsets.  Political newcomer Elizabeth S. Campbell defeated two-term incumbent Logan Fink without raising any money, doing any advertising, or even getting any significant press.

For those of you who don’t know, Campbell is one of the crazy Ron Paul people (I use that term affectionately; I like the Ron Paul people).  They’re running a few people in local elections this year, and have really proven their ability to organise by helping Campbell get elected.

Apparently, the Ron Paul people, and Campbell, are vehemently against having fluoride in our drinking water.  That I didn’t know, but I am pleased to learn.  I don’t really drink ECUA water, but maybe I wouldn’t regard it as completely toxic if they took at least that one poison out.

Today and every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 29 August 2008:

Obama 282 McCain 256

I consider this a generally pessimistic prediction; I’ve given McCain a few states I really don’t think he’ll win (Ohio, New Hampshire) and a bunch that I think are very competitive.

Sarah Palin for VP?

What is John McCain thinking?

Sarah Palin is virtually unknown outside of Alaska and political circles. She gets McCain nothing on the electoral map. Nothing, nada, zero, zip — except Alaska, of course, which he’d win without her. She doesn’t have any economic, foreign policy, or legislative credentials. Hell, she doesn’t really have any credentials of any sort! She’s been a governor for two years. Four years ago she was Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

Seriously?

I realise that you couldn’t pick Pawlenty, because Biden would tear him to pieces, and you couldn’t pick Mitt Romney, because he has, like, 73 houses. That said, there HAD to be a better pick than Sarah Palin! Even with her reputation for clean government, I wouldn’t touch ANYONE from Alaska with the Ted Stevens scandal going on.

The only ways that I see that Palin helps McCain:

• Balances the ticket agewise, maybe makes it a littler harder or less effective to attack McCain’s age. That said, though, the selection of someone as inexperienced as Palin also takes away McCain’s argument that Barack Obama is inexperienced or not ready. Her inexperience makes Senator Obama look like an seasoned statesman. Sane and reasonable people will cringe when at the thought of this woman becoming the president if anything happened to McCain.
• Palin is solidly anti-abortion, pro-creationism, etc., and will maybe help out with the social conservative wing of the Republican Party which which McCain has so many problems. That said, I just don’t see them getting fired up and rallying around Sarah Palin.

I’ll certainly be the first to admit it if I’m proved wrong — but this is about the dumbest pick ever. There had to be a better option.

As if we needed more reason to celebrate the defeat of Sheriff Ron McNesby — we’ve got one.  McNesby, anticipating going on the the general election cycle, has more than $90,000 left in his campaign account.

Those of you whom are unfamiliar with election law might be asking, “What will happen to that money?”

Well, let’s ask F.S. 106.141(4):

…Any candidate required to dispose of funds pursuant to this section shall, at the option of the candidate, dispose of such funds by any of the following means, or any combination thereof:

1.  Return pro rata to each contributor the funds that have not been spent or obligated.

2.  Donate the funds that have not been spent or obligated to a charitable organization or organizations that meet the qualifications of s. 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code.

3.  Give not more than $10,000 of the funds that have not been spent or obligated to the political party of which such candidate is a member, except that a candidate for the Florida Senate may give not more than $30,000 of such funds to the political party of which the candidate is a member.

4.  Give the funds that have not been spent or obligated:

a.  In the case of a candidate for state office, to the state, to be deposited in either the Election Campaign Financing Trust Fund or the General Revenue Fund, as designated by the candidate; or

b.  In the case of a candidate for an office of a political subdivision, to such political subdivision, to be deposited in the general fund thereof

So, Ronnie Mac has to either (a) give the $90,000 back to all contributors in a prorated fashion; (b) donate it to charity, or (c) give it to the Escambia County General Revenue Fund.  He can give $10,000 of it to the Florida Republican Party.

All those donations to Ronnie Mac’s campaign will do some good after all!

There are a lot of happy candidates tonight;  but the real winners of the evening are the citizens of Escambia County.  In one glorious night we have rid ourselves of our County’s two most corrupt, incompetent, and embarrassing public figures:  Sheriff Ron McNesby and Commissioner Mike Whitehead.

Voters voiced their discontent loudly:  McNesby lost by 13 points, while Whitehead fell by an astounding 61.

Another big loser tonight is the Pensacola News Journal.  Ignoring the public clamor for change, the PNJ endorsed McNesby for reelection, in what was perhaps the most out-of-touch editorial I’ve ever read.  They praised McNesby for his “growth” as Sheriff and referred to the ECSO as an “effective operation” that “taken on a progressive look”.  The citizens have shown tonight that they don’t feel the same way as the PNJ editorial board — big surprise.

All 90 of 90 precincts reporting.  However, results are not yet certified as official.

As of 8:08 PM (23 of 90 precincts reporting):

As of 7:29 PM (0 of 90 precincts reporting):

The polls are now closed and voter turnout in both Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties appears to have been disappointingly low.  Escambia County Supervisor of Elections David Stafford pegs Escambia County turnout at 10-15%.

When I went to vote at Precinct 90 in Eastside, I was the only person there.

Jeffrey A. Humbles, who is a candidate for the District 6 seat on Pensacola City Council, was arrested last night on charges of obstruction of justice, the PNJ reports.

Apparently Humbles had parked his car outside of what the ECSO is calling “a known drug house” near S Street and Truman Avenue.  ECSO thought the car looked suspicious, although they could not or would not tell the PNJ what about the car was suspicious.  The ECSO deputy called for backup and a K9 “alerted” on the car, giving the deputies probable cause to search the car for drugs.  Humbles refused to surrender his car keys;  hence the obstruction of justice charge.  That said, when ECSO did search Humbles’ car, they did not find any drugs.  So why do the charges stand if he indeed obstructed no justice?

Humbles called the charges “inaccurate and all lies.”

Get out and vote.

View Your Sample Ballot to find your precinct and polling place.

I’ve enjoyed watching the Rally 2008 series on WSRE this week.  I’ve still got last night’s installment to watch, but here’s my take on some of the races and candidates who have appeared:

Escambia County Sheriff

I thought that both Democratic candidates did well.  I enjoyed the back and forth between David Morgan and Ron McNesby.  Morgan again came off as level-headed and informative while McNesby came off like a liar and an excuse-maker.  That’s probably because he was lying and making excuses.

Escambia County Supt. of Schools (D)

Both Brown-Curry and Stidham did well, although both made slip-ups.  Simmons did passably but considerably worse than her opponents.

School Board District 5

Harrell and Slayton both did pretty well, in my opinion.  Tegenkamp didn’t even both to respond to WSRE (why is he running?) and Gindl, the incumbent, looked disheveled and came off like he was making excuses or wasn’t sure how he felt about things.