Covering pensacola politics, news, and culture from a progressive point of view

Every Friday through the general election I will lay out my prediction as to how I think the presidential race will shake out.

As most of you know, national popular vote is irrelevant in presidential elections. The presidency is awarded based on votes in the Electoral College, which are apportioned according to popular vote within states. The magic number is 270; either candidate that attains that number of Electoral College votes will have achieved a majority and will win the presidency.

My prediction as of 5 September 2008:

Obama 282 McCain 256

Unchanged since last week. There’s been a little bit of movement here and there, but it hasn’t changed the map at all. Obama has shored up his support in states he was already going to win. North Carolina is a leaning a little more for McCain. As I said last week, I consider this a generally pessimistic prediction; I’ve given McCain a few states I really don’t think he’ll win (Ohio, New Hampshire) and a bunch that I think are very competitive.

Battleground States

These are the states which are seriously in play and could go either way. I’ve awarded them based on trend data and gut feeling.

CO FL MT ND NH NV OH VA

Pennsylvania is no longer in this category, with Obama/Biden polling 6-7 points up consistently. The big prizes here, of course, are Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13). It’s my opinion that Obama only needs one of those three states. McCain needs all three.

Competitive States

These are states in which the two candidates poll six or less points apart.

Obama is competitive in: AZ GA IN MO NC

It’s remarkable, really, how many states Obama is competitive in. What’s even more remarkable is how many of those competitive states are usually forgone conclusions for the GOP.

McCain is competitive in: MI

I’m confident that Obama will take Michigan, but it’s within reach for McCain.

The Escambia BOCC voted last night to cut the millage rate, which determines property taxes, from 8.017 to 6.9755 mils. This will represent a savings of $100-200 for the average homeowner, and a cut to the County budget of $27.7 million. Now, the county will make up some of that — around $13 million — from new revenue, as courts have ruled the County can now levy property taxes against the residents of Pensacola Beach. Even so, that’s still a big budget cut, and while tax relief is certainly welcome, I don’t know that I trust our BOCC to handle any budget cut responsibly.

Links

• PNJ: “County rolls back property tax rates”

Congressman John Lewis (D-GA), a civil rights legend, will be on hand Saturday when the Obama campaign officially opens its Pensacola headquarters at in Belmont-DeVilliers.

Campaign staff has been on the ground since July, mainly working out of the offices of the Escambia County Democratic Party, but has established a separate headquarters to focus solely on the presidential campaign.

The headquarters grand opening will be held at 2 p.m. Saturday, at 321 North de Villiers Street (corner Belmont & de Villers). The event is open to the public.

I must admit, considering what a political junkie as I am, I remember asking “Sarah who?” when McCain chose his #2 last week. Don’t get me wrong, I was thrilled with the choice. It completely erodes the McCain team’s argument that Obama lacks experience. So what about Sarah Palin’s experience? She was Governor of one of the least populated states in America (Alaska) for the last 20 months. Surely she brings more to the table then that? After all, if the Republican Party wins the White House she would be one heartbeat away from the oldest President ever elected in this country’s history. As we dig through her resume, we see that she was mayor of a small town in Alaska (population 9,000). Honestly! There were nearly that many protesters outside of the Convention. Ron Paul’s “Campaign for Liberty” (his counter-convention) drew more people than that. Don’t get me wrong, being mayor is an important job. After all, those potholes don’t fix themselves.

So what kind of decision-maker would she be? We really don’t know anything about her policies and she has no real record for us to review. The campaign releases the same two pictures over and over. In the one photo she is shooting an assault rifle and the other she is holding her infant baby. Talk about mixed messages!

We know where she stands on offshore drilling, after all, she hails from Alaska. We know she subscribes to an “abstinence only” policy and opposes any kind of sex education (did I mention that her 17-year-old daughter is pregnant? Oops!). We know she is in favor of “big government” involved in family planning. But, when it comes to some of the major issues that we face in this country, the economy, foreign policy, welfare, and immigration, she has no record, no position, and absolutely no experience.

So, how did she do in her acceptance speech? Well…that depends.

For the 18,000 delegates that were at the Convention, she did a fantastic job of dishing out the “red meat” and telling the hard-core fringe of America, already solidly in the McCain camp, exactly what they wanted to hear. So what? There was no one in that room was voting any other way than Republican. But what about all those “undecided” voters that don’t fit neatly into either Party? This is the problem for the Republican Party.

Her speech offered no solutions for the family whose home is about to go into foreclosure. Her speech gave no relief to the single mom who is paying record-high gas prices as she struggles to get the kids to school and herself to work. College students getting ready set to graduate and enter the workforce with $20,000 in debt were left with nothing to vote for. Seniors, who are facing a tough choice between food and life-saving medicine, were left wondering why this once-great party of Ronald Reagan has left them behind.

What about all those Hillary supporters? Surely they will flock behind Palin, right? After all, she’s got boobs too!! Well, I give women more credit than that. I can’t see any of Senator Clinton’s 18,000,000 supporters coming out to support a woman who is against equal pay for women or supporting someone willing to sacrifice personal freedom for a few votes.

So, in short; Her speech did exactly what I expected it to do. Rally the base to motivate them to turn off “Dancing with the Stars” and get out and vote on Election Day; and to slam the Democratic Party in an attempt to scare voters with the usual “they will raise your taxes and steal your guns” crap that only seems to work in small pockets of the country.

This is a different year and we, as America, face some very tough issues. A dreadful economy, a looming energy crisis, the threat of radical militants, and wide-open boarders. Flag waving and speeches about the “liberal” media are not going to win over undecided, independent-minded voters. In fact, her speech alienated most of these critical voters that tuned in to hear some solutions, and instead, witnessed an absolute political food fight between grown men and women.

As the political signs came down and the roars of “drill, baby, drill” were silenced, Americans were still left empty handed. Thank God we have a party with real solutions for real Americans. Vote Democrat this November. Your children will thank you for it.

Starting today, Progressive Pensacola will feature guest bloggers — good content written by good writers that just so happen to not be me.

Our first guest blogger is an area Democratic activist, who for personal reasons will use the psuedonym From the Left when guest blogging.

Interested in guest blogging for Progressive Pensacola?  You don’t have to be a member of any specific party or subscribe to any particular school of political thought.  The only requirement is that you be forward-thinking (progressive).  If interested, contact me at dscosson@gmail.com.

OK, convention speeches are supposed to be overblown, and fantastic, but come on. Rudy Giuliani just started making stuff up, last night:

He (Obama) immersed himself in Chicago machine politics.

What the hell? No, he didn’t, and Giuliani didn’t and can’t offer up anything to back that ridiculous claim.

John McCain will lower taxes so our economy can grow.

That sentence should read, “John McCain will lower taxes for rich people and corporations, so the wallets of rich people and corporations will grow.”

…not what [Democrats] want to do, tax us more, increase the size of government, increase tariffs, hurt jobs, send jobs elsewhere.

Democrats don’t want to do any of those things. Except maybe the tariffs.

We need John McCain to save our economy…

LOLz.

For four days in Denver, the Democrats were afraid to use the words “Islamic terrorism.” I imagine they believe it is politically incorrect to say it. I think they believe it will insult someone. Please tell me, who are they insulting if they say “Islamic terrorism”? They are insulting terrorists.

No. It’s insulting Muslims. The phrase “Islamic terrorism” is offensive. These terrorists are terrorists first, who are also Islamic extremists. Members of the Ku Klux Klan could be called terrorists, and many of them are also Christians. But if they were described publicly as “Christian terrorists”, people would be rightly offended.

Let’s look at just one example at a lifetime of principled stands that John McCain’s brought about: his support for the troop surge in Iraq. The Democratic Party had given up on Iraq … In the single biggest policy decision of this election, John McCain got it right, and Barack Obama got it wrong.

I think history will bear out that it was stupid to continue this war, but that aside, I don’t think “the surge” is close to the biggest policy decision of this election. And neither do most Americans. Looked at any polling lately, Rudy?

While the Obama campaign has tried to focus on real issues that affect us all — the economy, healthcare, the war — the McCain campaign wants to obscure the issues. They want to take this election as low as possible. They want to make this election not about issues or even anything real, but about caricatures: An aggrandised and overblown John McCain, the all-American golden boy war hero maverick who is ready for reform, even though he’s walked line-and-step with the current unpopular president for the last eight years; and an twisted, cartoonish Obama who is black and scary and naive and inexperienced (and maybe a Muslim?!?).

Both views are completely baloney.

John McCain is a war hero. God, I can’t imagine the things he went through in Vietnam and I can’t thank him enough for his service. But he’s NOT perfect. He’s NOT a reformer or a maverick. I believe that John McCain was a good man with a good heart at some point but he has sold out to the Bush administration and the Washington lobbyists that now run his campaign. McCain is now a promise of more of the same, a continuation of failed Bush policies.

Barack Obama is a fresh and energising political figure but HE is not perfect. He is not a messiah, or a saviour. He will not fix anything, much less everything, overnight — and he hasn’t promised to. He DOES offer a genuine effort to rise above small, bitter, polarised politics to work together for real solutions to real problems. As far as his experience, something Obama said when he announced his candidacy is the only argument I needed to hear: “I know I haven’t spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I’ve been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change.”

Don’t fall for the stereotypes. If you vote for Senator McCain, that’s fine; but do so because you believe he’s the right man for the job, not because you’re afraid to shake things up, or because you’re afraid of the caricature Obama. John McCain’s positions are George Bush’s positions. If you enjoy high gas prices, the state of our economy, and endless war, then vote for John McCain, because he’ll continue Bush’s failed energy policy, his failed economic policy, and his failed foreign relations policy. If you are like me, and you’re not doing well, and you’re disgusting with the way things have become, then don’t vote for more of the same, take a chance, and support Senator Obama.

The Northwest Florida Police Benevolent Association will endorse Democrat Larry Scapecchi as its choice for Sheriff of Escambia County at a rally tonight.

My favourite do-nothing, 13-year member of City Council (isn’t it great that we have more than one to choose from?) is 63 today!

The Florida Supreme Court today ordered that three of the nine proposed amendments that were set to appear on ballots in November be removed.  Voters will no longer be voting on proposed Amendments 5, 7, and 9.

The most well-known of these is the proposed Amendment 5, sometimes called the “tax-swap amendment”, which, if approved, would have changed the way Florida schools are funded.  Currently, a large portion of education funding comes from state-mandated property taxes.  If passed, Amendment 5 would have eliminated those property taxes.  The funding shortfall would have to be made up by the Legislature, through budget cuts elsewhere, a state sales tax increase, or repealing tax breaks.

If we could trust the Legislature to do the right thing, to cut in the right places, then Amendment 5 might have been a good idea;  but, of course, we can’t trust them.  If Amendment 5 had passed, we’d get more property tax relief, but we’d just have to make it up elsewhere, in new taxes or more service cuts.

Also removed from the November ballot was Amendment 7, which has been spun by sneaky Republicans as a measure to reaffirm or codify religious freedom (which, incidentally, is already codified in Florida law).  Of course, that’s not what the amendment was really about.  If passed, Amendment 7 would have ended prohibitions against using public money directly or indirectly in aid of any church or religious organization.  Basically, it would have allowed the Legislature to use taxpayer money to fund faith-based or church-operated programs and services.  I’m not okay with my tax dollars going to private religious organizations.  Even if this had stayed on the ballot and passed, it wouldn’t have made it past the first legal challenge.  The amendment, in my opinion and that of others, would have violated the First Amendment of the United States Constitution, which is a no-no.

Lastly, the Court axed Amendment 9 from the ballot, a measure which if passed would have allowed so called “school voucher” programs to be financed by public money (your tax dollars would pay for some children to go to private schools which are not accountable to any goverment) and would have required that 65 percent of school funding received by school districts be spent on classroom instruction, rather than administration, which realistically is already the case almost everywhere.

The Court found that the title and ballot summary of all three proposed amendments was misleading.  Amendments 7 and 9 were added to the ballot by the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission; the Supreme Court ruled the Commission overstepped its authority in adding the proposed amendments, as they do not deal directly with taxation.

Links

• Vote Smart Florida: Amendment 5
• Vote Smart Florida: Amendment 7
• Vote Smart Florida: Amendment 9
• AARP: “Amendment 5 tax plan only buys trouble for Florida”
• GiveMe5Florida.com